Training Taleb Statistics: Fat Tails & Black Swans

Taleb Statistics: Fat Tails & Black Swans

Statistics
Advanced 150 minutes 5 lessons
Nassim Taleb's statistical worldview: Mediocristan vs Extremistan, power laws, black-swan risk, fragility/antifragility, and the barbell strategy for tail hedging.

Learning Objectives

  • Distinguish Mediocristan from Extremistan via max-to-sum diagnostics
  • Fit and interpret power-law tail indices with moment constraints
  • Quantify black-swan exposure using Expected Shortfall
  • Classify fragility through Jensen's inequality and payoff convexity
  • Construct barbell portfolios and size tail-risk bets with Kelly

Lessons

1
Mediocristan vs Extremistan
30 min
2
Power Laws & Pareto Distributions
30 min
3
Black Swans & the Turkey Problem
30 min
4
Fragility, Antifragility & Convexity
30 min
5
Barbell Strategy & Tail-Risk Hedging
30 min

Quick Practice

Test your knowledge with a quick interactive challenge from this module.

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Key Concept Flashcards

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